01The farm hasn’t changed. The risk landscape has.
Dr Andrea Campher of Standard Bank Business and Commercial Banking started where every farmer starts: can I remain profitable, can I withstand a drought, can I finance growth? Climate, inputs, water, markets and traceability now all shape the answer.
Her chain of risk is simple: water stress leads to lower production, weaker cash flow and, ultimately, credit risk. “A sustainability issue today can become a credit risk tomorrow.”
A sustainability issue today can become a credit risk tomorrow.Dr Andrea Campher, Standard Bank
02Banks can finance risk. Uncertainty is harder.
The way through is evidence. Data reduces uncertainty, and lower uncertainty improves investability: data builds confidence, and confidence unlocks capital. “Not more data. Better decisions.” Standard Bank has committed to mobilising more than R450 billion in sustainable finance by 2028 (group-wide), with around R177 billion already mobilised since 2022. Resilience requires investment in water, technology, energy, improved feeding practices and traceability.
03From the panel: what lenders and investors look for
Dr Campher added a practical point for farmers: “Good records will not automatically guarantee access to finance, but poor records will certainly limit access.” Banks are comfortable financing known risks; data reduces uncertainty. She also called for proportionality: asking a farmer whether they have solar is more useful than demanding an audited decarbonisation strategy.
Lwandiso Makupula of the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) explained how a development financier assesses agricultural projects: commercial viability after servicing debt, the business model and governance, market access and inputs, growth potential, transformation, development impact such as jobs and women’s participation, and measurable green impact, for example drip instead of flood irrigation. “Being green is not enough alone, but being green is an added advantage.” Early-stage projects often need patient capital, combining grants, blended finance and concessionary debt.
Prof Oberholster put the broader shift plainly: “Climate is busy rewriting all our financial models.” And panel facilitator Antois van der Westhuizen brought it back to the farm: sustainability means producing in a way that doesn’t harm “our children’s children” or the future of production on that same land, and efficiency ultimately comes down to whether the business makes money and survives.
Dr Roelof Botha added the macro context: South Africa’s fixed capital formation is about 14% of GDP, around half the global average, and the real cost of capital has roughly doubled over the past decade. Making agriculture investable matters all the more.
04Capital is being re-allocated
Prof Cobus Oberholster, Head of the Research Chair in Climate Financing at the University of the Free State, showed how climate finance is re-classifying assets as fossil, green or vulnerable, and farmers sit among the vulnerable asset owners. Strategically altering asset valuations will significantly influence future allocations of capital.
His prescription: develop the red meat chain as an investable asset class, using public money to mobilise private investment, with an integrated chain perspective, multi-stakeholder strategies and strong institutions. Commercialisation focus must also move from the production level to the aggregation level.
05Producing more from every animal
Dr De Wet Barnard of MSD Animal Health asked how the industry can produce red meat sustainably while serving One Health. Producing more from every animal means less land, less water and lower emissions per kilogram: based on US research extrapolated to South Africa’s feedlot scale, he estimated the alternative would need some 320 000 more hectares, 14.86 billion more litres of water and 440 000 more tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions each year. “Profit paves the path towards One Health.”
Dr Riaan du Preez of MSD Animal Health placed all of this in the context of a polycrisis, in which climate, food, health and economic crises reinforce one another, and asked how South Africa’s red meat industry can build global competitiveness while strengthening the socio-ecological systems it depends on.
06Carbon credits: new income, if farmers are protected
Michael Lilje, Founder and CEO of Orizon Agriculture, showed how carbon markets can reward regenerative practice. On the same soil and slope, ultra-high density grazing produced 4.1 t/ha of grass against 2.3 t/ha under selective grazing, with almost double the grass per millimetre of rain. Orizon’s first pilot generated 160 000 credits for 22 farmers on 16 000 hectares, putting an estimated R27–R37 million in farmers’ hands.
His warning was about terms. Contracts can run for 30 years or more, so the payout percentage matters: on an illustrative 1 000 ha farm, the difference between a 40% and a 70% share is R4.5 million. Farmers should engage early, insist on registry-certified credits, avoid paying upfront for sampling, compare developers, and remember that the credits belong to them.
Key takeaways
- Measure, demonstrate, finance: credible evidence is what unlocks capital.
- Carbon credits can reward regenerative grazing, but check the payout and contract terms.
- Treat climate and water risk as credit risk, and invest in resilience.
- Develop the red meat chain as an investable asset class.
- Productivity per animal is a sustainability strategy.